"Home is the smallest country, and the country is tens of thousands of...". At present, the most popular event is the "upgrading of the Sino US trade war". The upgrading of the trade war affected a wide range of industries and enterprises, and netizens talked about it all the time. Crazy increase of 25% tariff, where will the valve and instrument industry go?
After the US tariff on US $200 billion Chinese products was raised from 10% to 25% from May 10, the US side further threatened to start the relevant procedures of levying 25% on the remaining US $325 billion Chinese products exported to the United States. As a counter measure, on the evening of May 13, the Tariff Commission of the State Council of China decided to increase the tariff rate on about US $60 billion imported goods originating in the United States from 0:00 on June 1, 2019.
Among them, 2493 tariff items are subject to an additional 25% tariff; An additional 20% tariff will be levied on 1078 tariff items; An additional 10% tariff will be imposed on 974 tariff items. 595 tariff items are still subject to an additional tariff of 5%. From the perspective of specific commodity categories, 5% are mainly concentrated in chemical industry and instruments, 10% and 20% involve a small amount of food, while agricultural products and food account for a large proportion of the highest 25% of tax stalls.
So what impact will the trade war between China and the United States have on our valve industry?
01
First of all, let's talk about it in a big way. According to recent data, China is the third largest export destination of the United States and the largest import source of the United States. For China, the United States is China's largest export destination, accounting for 18.5% of China's total exports and China's sixth largest source of imports.
How much will the trade conflict affect us? China's exports are damaged and its economy will be affected. If the impact of the US tariff increase on China's imports is calculated by increasing by 10% and 20%, China's total exports are predicted to decrease by 1.1% and 2.6% respectively, and GDP will be dragged down by 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points. With less GDP, we people have less money in their pockets.
For the industry, if the United States takes comprehensive tariff increase measures, it will have a great impact on China's exports of computer and communication electronic equipment (56%), cultural, industrial, sports and entertainment products (30%), leather, fur, feather and shoemaking (25%), clothing and apparel (24%), transportation equipment (21%), metal products and machinery (21%) and furniture manufacturing (21%) And other industries will also be more seriously affected by the potential impact of the trade war. If double countermeasures are taken, the areas affected are mainly steel products, miscellaneous products, chemicals, metals and products.
02
Secondly, in terms of the machinery industry, China's export of mechanical and electrical products to the United States is 234.91 billion yuan and its import from the United States is 70.93 billion yuan. The trade surplus of mechanical and electrical products to the United States accounts for 37.5% of China's total trade surplus of mechanical and electrical products, and is one of the main sources of the surplus.
China's exports to the United States are mainly textile machinery, ships and parts, molding machinery, etc. Due to the rapid development of China's machinery industry in recent years, the differences in product quality and added value between China and the United States are becoming smaller and smaller. Therefore, the large-scale conflict between China and the United States in the trade of machinery and equipment industry will become more and more obvious. As an indispensable part of mechanical products, the export of mechanical products often affects the nerves of many domestic spare parts manufacturers.
03
Finally, in terms of the valve industry, with the rapid development of more than 30 years since the reform and opening up, China's valve industry has made great progress, and the valve standards have also made a qualitative leap. At present, there are more than 20000 domestic large and small valve manufacturers. Including gate valve, globe valve, ball valve, butterfly valve, safety valve, check valve, throttle valve, plug valve, pressure reducing valve, diaphragm valve, steam trap, emergency shut-off valve, etc.
In 2015-2016, China's total valve export increased from 4.585 billion sets / kg to 4.733 billion sets / kg, an increase of 3.2%; From January to July 2017, the total export volume of our valves was 2.934 billion sets / kg, an increase of 7.5% over the same period last year.
It symbolizes that China's valve industry is going more and more smoothly from import, domestic sales to export.
At present, China's valves have been exported to more than 30 countries and regions such as the United States, Canada, Germany and Italy, and have entered the world valve market. China's valve export ranks about 10th among the world's valve exporters. Especially among the major suppliers of valves exported to the United States, China ranks first for many years!
Therefore, if China's valve industry falls into a Sino US trade war, it may be greatly affected.
At present, China's valve manufacturing industry has made remarkable achievements. From being beaten backward to taking off, Chinese manufacturers have made great efforts and efforts. However, it is undeniable that many valve products in China still rely on imports, and there are still difficult technical difficulties in the R & D and production of made in China in these fields. The Sino US trade war may be an opportunity for valve enterprises to focus on these technical barriers and truly realize the localization of high-end valves!